Electric mobility: Exploring the disparity between deployment speed and credibility
The Key Realities I Learned as a Developer of Electric Charging Infrastructure
Summary: The future of electric mobility faces challenges in terms of public perception and communication. The disconnect between projections and general belief can be attributed to factors such as a lack of understanding of electric mobility as part of a system, the fragmentation of companies in the industry, the changing attitudes towards car ownership, the government's slow response and incentives, and underestimating the geopolitical reality of the global energy world. Addressing these factors is crucial for the successful adoption of electric mobility.
Every day, I hear the same response: "We are not interested in installing electric vehicle charging points." When I inquire a little to find out why, in those cases where I have the opportunity to ask, the answer is almost always that the person does not believe electric mobility will ever become widespread, ubiquitous, and undeniable.
Accepting any initiative, no matter how well-founded and supported by data, will only have strength if it is something "achievable" in the minds of those who will experience it, that is, society as a whole.
Yesterday, I spent part of my day reading the International Energy Agency (IEA) projections on electric mobility. Surprisingly, it states that from 2022 to 2030, there will be an increase from 3 to 17 million charging points worldwide (467%), and the percentage of electric vehicle sales (battery and/or plug-in hybrids) will increase from 13% to 70%.
Source: IEA. Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach
How can we reconcile the public's perception with the projections of agencies and governments? Isn't communication a fundamental part of facilitating the path to achieving these goals?
This disconnect can have various causes based on my empirical experience after traveling thousands of kilometers on the road and having the opportunity to meet people from different socioeconomic levels, academic backgrounds, ideologies, etc. From these encounters, I have identified five main reasons.
Lack of understanding of electric mobility as part of a system
A few weeks ago, I was astonished to hear the statements of a United States official involved with the Department of Transportation during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. The official stated that vehicles were considered valuable real estate assets for Americans, as they spend many hours daily in them. I was surprised that I had never considered a metal structure with an engine and wheels to fall under this category.
Understanding the context in which the concept was shared, I can now not only imagine it but also support it. For the past 5 years, I have been dedicated to urban mobility planning. Although I started focused on micromobility issues, I soon found myself analyzing all types of transportation that could replace and/or complement the one I was studying. If it was bicycles, I had to consider metro lines, trams, and buses that would serve as access or exit axes for users, depending on where they were going or coming from in what is considered the "first or last mile of travel."
This process became even more significant in the case of tenders. Cities required justification for how a particular type of transportation would integrate with the existing ones in a specific area. Analyzing population density figures, distances, per capita income, universities, and places of interest led to an overwhelming amount of data. Our goal was to extract meaningful insights from this data.
Regarding vehicles, none or very little of this is necessary. It is taken for granted that private vehicles are the king of mobility; therefore, they will go wherever they need to go, and users are entitled to a source of energy to recharge their batteries. While it is true that the search for locations to deploy infrastructures focuses on the sides of highways, it is also true that no other transportation system is taken into account. From the perspective of someone who has had to consider intangible aspects to obtain approval for use, suddenly, you only have to look at the distance from the highway or road to propose the construction of a power station.
Some people may believe that the current situation is a result of being in the early stages, and as more charging points are installed, other factors will also be taken into consideration. While this may be true, it is key to note that other systems or technologies, such as geolocated electric bicycles or mopeds and private hailing services, have faced difficulties in convincing regulators and authorities to support their deployment, address their costs, and most importantly, demonstrate their value to users.
Too many companies, suddenly, too much to learn
The fragmentation of companies specializing in specific aspects of the constantly expanding electric mobility sector can be challenging for newcomers. Dealing with manufacturers, range options, chargers, installations, and fees can feel like solving a puzzle. While it's natural for any new endeavor to have a learning curve, the fragmented nature of these services can be confusing and lead to frustration.
I support free and open market competition. I believe that any company with a product or service that addresses customer needs should have the chance to participate. However, there is a concern that in such a rapidly advancing field, end users may feel overwhelmed by the multitude of seemingly unrelated options. A typical example is municipalities lacking knowledge about decisions made in Europe. This is a failure of the policy promoting the transition from fossil fuels, and here's why.
Any initiative that requires citizen involvement should start at the municipal level. Municipalities are the primary point of contact, operating everything from health centers to municipal pools in almost every town. It would be a mistake to assume that electric mobility will happen spontaneously or gradually expand from cities to the entire country.
If this path is chosen, it will not only lack the necessary legitimacy (even if it is mandatory), but it will also be elitist and exclusive. This will condemn it to enter a field of political diatribe where it should not be (we will discuss this later in terms of geopolitics).
Faced with an unclear purchasing landscape that requires experience to avoid mistakes in the face of the diversity of offerings, changes will be delayed and economically uneducated.
The importance of cars for different generations
Source: McKinsey & Company, Europe’s Gen Z and the future of mobility
I am over 40 years old, and when I was 20, owning a car was my greatest aspiration. At 21, my mother gave me one, and I was delighted. I don't remember worrying about the price of gasoline, although my memories are influenced by growing up in Venezuela, where water was more expensive than fuel. Having a car was synonymous with achievement; it brought you closer to the person you liked, it allowed you to study, travel, and go out; it was something you would be willing to do anything for.
It is now 2023, and survey results show a clear trend: today's youth do not have the same interest in owning a vehicle.
The apparent advantages of having the freedom to travel anywhere are not substantial enough to outweigh the minor inconveniences of owning a vehicle. From obtaining a driver's license to covering expenses such as car payments, road taxes, parking, and fuel (whether fossil or electric), owning a vehicle entails responsibilities that many are reluctant to assume. Some individuals may prioritize living a technology-driven lifestyle, prefer to allocate their funds towards air travel or view vehicle ownership as a material possession in the end.
The impact of this change is not insignificant. What happens if, in the end, a paradigm shift makes the huge current investments in infrastructure worthless? Will this deployment be as attractive to a generation of 30 years or younger who are about to take on relevant positions and decision-making in Europe?
Perhaps this disconnect between initiative and reality is the tip of the iceberg of a society that understands that the future will not be similar to the past, not only in terms of the type of energy vehicles used but in the "apparatus" itself.
The government's slowness in its responses and incentives
The energy transition is one of the most debated and present topics in European politics. The environmental discourse, justified or not (depending on the political inclination of the evaluator), has replaced other topics that were once central in national and supranational parliaments, such as the European Parliament. There is not as much talk about the economy, health, or security, but rather the need to achieve the goals established in Paris or Glasgow, with a strong focus on sustainability.
If that is the case, and understanding that these are high-level decisions, they should not remain mere words. PowerPoint presentations with graphs and drawings suggesting that if we do not change course, the climate disaster will be inevitable are impressive, but on their own, they do not bring about any change or implement any action. It is necessary to speed up and streamline the procedures related to implementing these changes. Instead of slowing down the momentum, they should be promoted at all costs.
Limiting myself to the scenario I know firsthand, that of Spain, an installation project takes between 12 to 24 months, and if it takes less than a year, it is celebrated enthusiastically. Something we tell potential partners is, "Hopefully, no nearby stream or small ravine appears because then it would take twice as long to obtain the permit." In addition to time, there is also the multiplicity of documents, some justified, such as those related to the ownership and safety of the installation, and others not so much, such as permits.
One of the major disadvantages of large projects is the human capacity to miscalculate the time it will take to complete a task. In this regard, Hofstadter's Law is famous, which says something like: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." If we scale this to a continental level, literally in the case of Europe, we have unexpected delays of the same magnitude. It is incredibly complicated first to establish the basis of how the process will be, how to allow it, how to speed it up, and how to eliminate what is not necessary before enacting laws and directives that require speed in their implementation.
Underestimating the geopolitical (and even physical) reality of the global energy world
I am an avid reader of Alex Epstein, Bjorn Lomborg, and Michael Shellenberger. While I don't always agree with everything they say, I believe it is crucial to consider different perspectives before making hasty decisions, such as discouraging families from having children. We should prioritize taking care of the environment, but we should also acknowledge that climate change is not solely caused by human activity. Understanding concepts like Earth, nature, climate, and weather is complex. Instead of completely changing our production structure, there may be adaptation policies that can yield better results. Additionally, not everyone can afford to transition away from fossil fuels; transitioning is often aimed at wealthy countries, at least for now.
However, I strongly believe in the need for a deliberate transition. Capitalizing on the ongoing environmental debate, Europe should strive to become independent of energy sources outside its borders. This is particularly important considering the risks associated with depending on countries led by unstable governments, arsonists, egomaniacs, dictators, or families that had a nomadic lifestyle until recently. Relying too heavily on one energy source poses significant risks. A cautionary example is the case of Russia. Europe's stubbornness and ambiguity regarding energy consumption made them vulnerable to external influences. Europe must prioritize its energy sovereignty and security, ensuring it is not at the mercy of unpredictable external factors.
Barcelona, September 27th 2023